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ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Tap ‎(01.09.10)
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Daily Analysis by ForexYard
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TOPIC: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Tap ‎(01.09.10)
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ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Tap ‎(01.09.10) 1 Year, 5 Months ago Karma: 0
Economic News
USD
The U.S. dollar fell against most of the major currencies during yesterday's trading session. The dollar ‎began yesterday's trading with a sharp 100 pips loss vs. the euro, which was slightly corrected later on. The ‎dollar saw a mild drop against the Japanese yen as well.‎

The dollar fell yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management Chicago said that U.S. business activity ‎grown at a slower pace than expected. The business activity in the U.S. expanded this month at the ‎lowest rate this year as the business barometer dropped to 56.7 on August, the lowest since November, ‎failing to reach expectations to 57.3. The dollar's fell came despite a surprising positive release of the ‎Consumer Confidence report. The Consumer Confidence is a survey of about 5,000 households which are ‎asked to rate their current and future economic conditions. The survey showed that the consumer ‎confidence improved unexpectedly in August to 53.5, from 51.0 in July, well above expectations for 50.7. It ‎currently seems that investors still have concerns regarding the growth of the U.S. economy, and as a ‎result the dollar is continues to weaken against the yen.‎

Looking ahead to today, a batch of data is expected from the U.S. economy. The most significant news ‎releases looks to be the ADP's prediction of this month Non-Farm Payrolls figures. The estimate is that the ‎employment condition has improved during the recent month. Such a result might correct some to the ‎dollar's losses against the euro and the yen.‎
EUR
The euro soared today against most of its major counterparts. The EUR/USD pair climbed over 100 pips ‎towards the 1.2740 level during early trading, yet eventually closed the trading day around the 1.2685 level. ‎The euro gained about 100 against the British pound and about 50 pips versus the Japanese yen.‎

The European currency strengthened yesterday as economic publications from the U.S. and the Euro-‎Zone have eased concerns regarding a global economic slowdown. Report showed today that home ‎prices in 20 U.S. cities rose more than expected in June from a year earlier. In addition, the U.S Consumer ‎Confidence survey unexpectedly rose for the first time in three months. Positive data was published from ‎the Euro-Zone as well today. The European Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate showed that inflation in ‎the Euro-Zone grew by 1.6%, according to expectations. The inflation in the Euro-Zone grows in a stabile ‎pace for several months now, indicating that the European economies are stabilizing.‎

The positive global data has increased risk-aversion in the market, and turned investors to look for risker ‎assets, such as the euro. It seems that further positive signals of global economic recovery might boost ‎the euro further.‎

As for today, the most significant economic release from the Euro-Zone looks to be the German Retail ‎Sales, which is scheduled for 06:00 GMT. Analysts have forecasted that retails sales in Germany slightly ‎rose in July. If the end result will be similar, the euro might extend its bullish trend today.‎
JPY
The Japanese yen rose today against most of the major currencies during yesterday's trading. The yen ‎gained about 140 pips against the British pound. The yen also saw a 90 pips rise vs. the U.S. dollar on early ‎trading.‎

Positive data from the Japanese economy has supported the yen yesterday. The Average Cash Earnings ‎report, which measures that change in the total value of employment income collected by workers, rose ‎by 1.3% on July, beating expectations for a 0.9% rise. In addition, the Housing Starts report showed that ‎the number of new residential buildings that began construction grew by 4.3% on July, reaching well ‎above expectations for a 2.5% rise. The positive figures have supported estimations that the Japanese ‎economic recovery is advancing, and as a result boosted the yen.‎

Looking ahead to today, no significant publications are expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are ‎advised to follow the major publications from the U.S. economy, and to follow U.S. and Japanese equity ‎markets. Traders should take under consideration that positive signals might increase risk-aversion, and as ‎a result weaken the yen.‎
OIL
Crude oil dropped for the second consecutive day today. Crude oil fell about 250 pips during yesterday's ‎trading session. A barrel of oil was traded for around $74.15 during yesterday morning, and dropped to a ‎daily low of $71.52 a barrel.‎

Crude oil prices fell yesterday as investors are concerned that oil demand in the U.S. will recover during ‎the second quarter of the year, following a lower than expected consumption in the first quarter. The U.S. ‎economy is the biggest oil consumer in the world, and recent reports have suggested that the U.S. ‎economic recovery is slowing down. It seems that for as long that until the U.S. economy will provide clear ‎signals of improvement, crude oil prices might continue to decline.‎

As for today, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories is scheduled for 14:30 GMT. Traders are advised to follow this ‎report, as its publication tends to have an instant impact on crude oil prices. Traders are also advised to ‎follow the major publications from the U.S. economy, especially the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ‎release.‎
Technical News
EUR/USD
The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating in the neutral territory. However, the 4-‎hour chart's Slow Stochastic is indicating a fresh bullish cross suggesting that an upward correction might ‎take place in the nearest time frame. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears ‎to be the preferable strategy. ‎
GBP/USD
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The daily chart's Slow ‎Stochastic provides us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4-hour chart do not provide a clear direction ‎as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today. ‎
USD/JPY
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the hourly and daily RSI, ‎suggesting downward pressure. There also appears to be a fresh bearish cross on the 4-hour and daily ‎Slow Stochastic, indicating that the next movement will likely be down. Going short might be a wise choice ‎today. ‎
USD/CHF
There is a fresh bullish cross forming on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, indicating bullish correction ‎might take place in the nearest future. The upward direction on the weekly chart's Momentum oscillator ‎also supports this notion. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.‎
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